AI & The Future of Power, News

India has disappointing level of AI development: Book

India currently has a disappointing level of artificial intelligence (AI) development and it needs to embark on a rapid program to catch up, says a new book by researcher-author Rajiv Malhotra.

In “Artificial Intelligence And The Future Of Power: 5 Battlegrounds”, he argues that AI-driven revolution will have an unequal impact on different segments of humanity and for countries like India, where a large percentage of the population lacks the education that is vital to survive a technological tsunami, the adverse effects could be shattering.

There will be new winners and losers, new haves and have-nots, resulting in an unprecedented concentration of wealth and power. There is a real possibility that AI may trigger an unprecedented level of unemployment and precipitate social instability, he claims.

According to Malhotra, India is an important case study on the impact of AI because that is where all the battles come together into one large and complex battleground.

“Indian society has forsaken its metaphysical roots in dharma to chase the Americanisation of artha (material pursuits) and kama (gratification of sensual desires). As a result, it is neither here nor there – having lost its traditional strengths both individual and collective, it is at best a poor imitation of the American dream,” he says.

Overpopulation, unemployment and poor education make India especially vulnerable, he says, adding many of its industries are technologically obsolete and dependent on imported technologies.

“India presently has a disappointing level of AI development and it needs to embark on a rapid program to catch up,” Malhotra writes in the book, published by Rupa Publications.

He also claims that India is not only lagging behind China in AI by at least a decade, but it also has routinely given away its unique data assets to foreign countries because of the ignorance of its leaders.

“If the present trajectory continues, India could be heading toward re-colonization, this time as a digital colony under the domination of the US and/or China,” he says.

Malhotra says AI is amplifying human ingenuity and is the engine driving the latest technological disruption silently shaking the foundations of society.

“My use of the term is not limited narrowly to what AI is specifically in the technical sense, but also includes the entire ecosystem of technologies that AI propels forward as their force multiplier. This cluster includes quantum computing, semiconductors, nanotechnology, medical technology, brain-machine interface, robotics, aerospace, 5G, and much more,” he says.

Malhotra uses AI as an umbrella term because it “leverages their development and synergises them”.

On the one hand, AI is the holy grail of technology; the advancement that people hope will solve problems across virtually every domain of our lives and on the other, it is disrupting a number of delicate equilibriums and creating conflicts on a variety of fronts, he argues.

Given the vast canvas on which AI’s impact is being felt, he says one needs a simple lens to discuss its complex ramifications in a meaningful and accessible way.

After several rounds of restructuring the book, Malhotra zeroed in on using the following key battles of AI as the organising principle.

“Artificial Intelligence plays a pivotal role in each of these disruptions, and each of these battlegrounds has multiple players with competing interests and high stakes: battle for economic development and jobs, power in the new world order, psychological control of desires and agency, metaphysics of the self and its ethics, and battle for India’s future,” he says.

These battles, he says, already exist but AI is exacerbating them and changing the game.

“In each case, the prevailing equilibriums are disintegrating, and as a result, creating tensions among the parties held in balance. We are entering an epoch of disequilibrium in which a period of chaos is inevitable. Eventually, however, a new equilibrium will be established, and a new kind of world will emerge,” he writes.

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AI & The Future of Power, News

India has disappointing level of AI development, need to catch up: Book

India currently has a disappointing level of artificial intelligence (AI) development and it needs to embark on a rapid program to catch up, says a new book by researcher-author Rajiv Malhotra.

In “Artificial Intelligence And The Future Of Power: 5 Battlegrounds”, he argues that AI-driven revolution will have an unequal impact on different segments of humanity and for countries like India, where a large percentage of the population lacks the education that is vital to survive a technological tsunami, the adverse effects could be shattering.

There will be new winners and losers, new haves and have-nots, resulting in an unprecedented concentration of wealth and power. There is a real possibility that AI may trigger an unprecedented level of unemployment and precipitate social instability, he claims.

According to Malhotra, India is an important case study on the impact of AI because that is where all the battles come together into one large and complex battleground.

“Indian society has forsaken its metaphysical roots in dharma to chase the Americanisation of artha (material pursuits) and kama (gratification of sensual desires). As a result, it is neither here nor there – having lost its traditional strengths both individual and collective, it is at best a poor imitation of the American dream,” he says.

Overpopulation, unemployment and poor education make India especially vulnerable, he says, adding many of its industries are technologically obsolete and dependent on imported technologies.

“India presently has a disappointing level of AI development and it needs to embark on a rapid program to catch up,” Malhotra writes in the book, published by Rupa Publications.

He also claims that India is not only lagging behind China in AI by at least a decade, but it also has routinely given away its unique data assets to foreign countries because of the ignorance of its leaders.

“If the present trajectory continues, India could be heading toward re-colonization, this time as a digital colony under the domination of the US and/or China,” he says.

Malhotra says AI is amplifying human ingenuity and is the engine driving the latest technological disruption silently shaking the foundations of society.

“My use of the term is not limited narrowly to what AI is specifically in the technical sense, but also includes the entire ecosystem of technologies that AI propels forward as their force multiplier. This cluster includes quantum computing, semiconductors, nanotechnology, medical technology, brain-machine interface, robotics, aerospace, 5G, and much more,” he says.

Malhotra uses AI as an umbrella term because it “leverages their development and synergises them”.

On the one hand, AI is the holy grail of technology; the advancement that people hope will solve problems across virtually every domain of our lives and on the other, it is disrupting a number of delicate equilibriums and creating conflicts on a variety of fronts, he argues.

Given the vast canvas on which AI’s impact is being felt, he says one needs a simple lens to discuss its complex ramifications in a meaningful and accessible way.

After several rounds of restructuring the book, Malhotra zeroed in on using the following key battles of AI as the organising principle.

“Artificial Intelligence plays a pivotal role in each of these disruptions, and each of these battlegrounds has multiple players with competing interests and high stakes: battle for economic development and jobs, power in the new world order, psychological control of desires and agency, metaphysics of the self and its ethics, and battle for India’s future,” he says.

These battles, he says, already exist but AI is exacerbating them and changing the game.

“In each case, the prevailing equilibriums are disintegrating, and as a result, creating tensions among the parties held in balance. We are entering an epoch of disequilibrium in which a period of chaos is inevitable. Eventually, however, a new equilibrium will be established, and a new kind of world will emerge,” he writes

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AI & The Future of Power, News

‘Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power’ a grim wake-up call for India

With Artificial Intelligence helping “biological materialism sneak in through the back door”, the world is witnessing a real clash of civilisations with “the battle between algorithm and being” writes Rajiv Malhotra, an internationally acclaimed author and public intellectual, in this seminal deep dive into a phenomenon that is only partially visible, like an iceberg.

Lamentably however, most of India’s leaders, public intellectuals, media personalities, policy makers, think tanks and authors are “ignoring the dangers” that lie ahead, “living securely in their comfort zones with like-minded peers”, Malhotra, the founder of the Princeton-based Infinity Foundation that specialises in the field of civilisational studies, writes in “Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power – 5 Battlegrounds” (Rupa).

Noting that China had created a vast ecosystem of domestic intellectual property in next generation technologies including AI, 5G, nanotechnology, robotics, Virtual/Augmented Reality, aerospace and biotechnology, Malhotra writes that all this while, “the brutal reality is that India’s newly minted billionaires were shortsighted – the products of jugaad and selfishness. They achieved instant wealth but failed to anticipate global trends. They became intoxicated with their status as popular icons that were glorified by the media and the government” and even received Padma awards “because they built personal fortunes even though they made precious little contribution toward nation-building”.

Until a decade ago, Malhotra notes, India’s tech giants had a strong lead in software development, many private and corporate fortunes were made, and Indians were justifiably proud of their advantage.

“It was touted as the superpower status. However, the country squandered its lead and allowed China to surpass it in AI and related technologies. Consequently, India has become dependent on the US and others for the latest technology needed in AI,” the author states.

‘Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power’ a grim wake-up call for India.

Thus, while India may have recently clamped down on Chinese investments, this was more in retaliation for border tensions “and not a strategic shift in R&D emphasis. It is a defensive move that can at best prevent further Chinese investments to slow the spread of China’s influence. But this by itself does nothing to upgrade the global competitiveness of India’s products. The fact remains that while China is a major disruptor of the world order by using AI as a weapon, India is at the receiving end of this disruption and having to be reactive”, Malhotra maintains.

Disruption, in fact, is what this 486-page tome, with an extensive reference section, is all about, as it lists the five battlegrounds of the future in an AI-driven world: Economy, industry, education and jobs; Geopolitics and military – USA, China and India; Moronization of the masses – bowing down to the digital deities, i.e., Google-devta, Twitter-devta and Facebook-devta; Loss of selfhood to artificial emotions and gratifications – this is the crash of civilisation; and Stress-testing the Indian Rashtra.

At the bottom line, it raises a troubling question: Is the world headed toward digital colonisation by the US and China? Quite obviously, this should be of immense concern to India.

To this end, the book is in two parts – the first dealing with the four battlegrounds in 255 pages in the first part and the second part, all of 138 pages, focusing on Battleground India.

“India cannot afford further delay in coming to terms with the fact that the control of most big data (the raw material required to develop machine understanding of human desires and their artificial manipulation) and deep learning is effectively in the hands of companies based in the US or China.

“Americans primarily own the software algorithms , data bases and operating platforms; the hardware is mostly Chinese. India is at the mercy of their technologies. And the foreign owners of the AI technology and digital platforms have no legal accountability in India, nor do they have the interests of Indians at heart to the same extent as their vested interests in their home countries.”

Regretfully, the book says, India’s data policies “have been weak and have allowed the drain of its precious data assets. In some ways, India is slipping to become the world’s largest digital colony with lifestyles, discourses and commerce controlled by foreign digital giants like Google, Facebook, Twitter, Netflix, Amazon and Flipkart. The foreign organisations maintain a lead of one generation of technology, and India is forever trying to catch up”.

“This is causing social and political interventions in India with the use of AI-driven platforms whose strings are pulled and manipulated from abroad. Especially those who feel disenfranchised, or who are dysfunctional as productive members of society, are highly vulnerable to succumbing to AI-based digital platforms; such platforms offer feel-good free services in exchange for capturing their privacy and their agency,” Malhotra writes.

Noting that the present conditions are a “playground for the breaking India forces” that he has discussed in his work over a quarter of a century, Malhotra adds: “Their foreign nexuses are well-funded and AI savvy, have experience in the use of technologies for creating social upheavals, and their machine learning systems have been using Indian big data to build and test psychological models for digital manipulation.”

India’s fabric, the book says, “in its current state is fragile and demands an increasing amount of resource allocation merely to keep it from imploding. There is far too much reliance on soft power as the solution, but soft power is always contingent on hard power”.

The lesson to be learned from the “Ramayana” and the “Mahabharata” is precisely this: Lord Ram failed to convince Ravana using all the soft power at his disposal but had to end up using hard power to defeat him. Likewise, Sri Krishna in the “Mahabharata” tries hard to use soft power arguments to win over Duryodhana, but eventually had to advocate the use of hard power to fight till the end.

“Therefore, even the avataras have needed hard power after being unsuccessful in producing the dharmic outcome with soft power alone. Indian spiritualists and political leaders should understand this and stop over-playing the soft power hand. It has made India society wooly-headed and lazy, and caused the kshatriyata to atrophy,” Malhotra writes.

Still, all is not lost.

“I am presently writing a sequel to this book that gives concrete ideas for not merely catching up in AI innovation but also using India’s special capabilities to leapfrog ahead by ten to twenty years. In many ways, this book is intended to prepare the ground for the way ahead,” Malhotra concludes.

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AI & The Future of Power, News

Excerpt: ‘Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power’ by Rajiv Malhotra

With every passing year, humans become more dependent on technology. That has several advantages but also some dangers, which Rajiv Malhotra reveals in his book, ‘Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power’.
An internationally acclaimed author who has studied computer science and done extensive research on India’s history, Rajiv Malhotra has interesting insights on what artificial intelligence is doing to our nation and how it will affect us in the future. He looks into how artificial intelligence will alter every aspect of our lives, from an international, to national to a personal level.

Here is an excerpt of the book to give you an idea on it:
Excerpts from ‘Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power’ by Rajiv Malhotra

The AI-based concentration of power has taken on a terrifying new aspect. When we think of global power, countries like the US, China, and Russia readily come to mind. But today, private companies are accumulating immense power based on their ability to leverage AI and big data as tools to influence, manipulate and even control the minds of people.

Some of these private companies may soon become more powerful than many nation-states, but the shift will not be obvious. They will not fly a flag or manage a currency (although some are attempting to launch their own cryptocurrency), and they will not wield military power, at least not directly. However, their unprecedented knowledge of people and things around the world, coupled with their ability to disrupt and alter the physical world and manipulate people’s choices, will lead to a new nexus of power. Such companies will decide who will, and who will not, be given access to this new form of power, and on what terms.

Not one Indian company is a player in this league. Most unfortunate is that a large number of talented Indians work for American and Chinese companies in an individual capacity, including in top executive positions, but not as owners. Indians who do own companies tend to sell their stake when the right offer comes along. Whenever innovative entrepreneurs anywhere in the world develop a promising breakthrough, digital giants or venture firms that serve as their proxies are waiting to buy them out. As a result, hundreds of instant millionaires are being created at the individual level, including many living in India.

I view this trend as the return of Britain’s East India Company, which started out in 1600 as a modest private company for the purpose of making profit from lucrative trade with India. Over its 250-year history, the East India Company became the world’s largest private business, amassing more wealth, income and military power than even its own British government. Despite being a private company, it became a colonial power—collecting taxes, operating courts, and running the military and other functions of state across many kingdoms within India. At the time, the East India Company had more ships, soldiers, money and territory under its control than any European government, though now it is remembered as a rogue machine. Since then, the lines between government and private companies have often blurred.

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AI Is ‘Moronising’ And ‘Colonising’ Us All Over Again, Says Rajiv Malhotra’s Book

Snapshot
  • Every policy-maker in India should read Rajiv Malhotra’s book to understand what we are up against and what we need to do to overcome our tech deficits.
  • We don’t have much time to lose.

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power: 5 Battlegrounds. Rajiv Malhotra. Rupa Publications India. 2021. Page 520. Rs 450.

One the greatest challenges facing modern democracies is the speed of technological change, which makes it difficult for society — any society — to even begin to understand technology’s impact on itself.

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AI & The Future of Power, Book review

Sounding a Tocsin

I will start with a quotation from elsewhere:

“Power” is considered an ability, the exercise of which can influence or control behaviour, in our context, of people. The term “authority” is often used for power perceived as legitimate by the social structure. The exercise of power is accepted as fundamental to humans as social beings……The quest for mundane power since ancient times finds cultural expression through many forms (e.g., birth/wealth/knowledge/ physical strength). The world has always witnessed apparent shifts in power structures…..Power finds expression both as soft and hard. An interesting game of power can be observed in how the global socio-politico-economic narratives have been not only designed but also are consistently under the control of a few…..[1]

And Rajiv Malhotra in this remarkable book educates us about a most dangerous game of power being played by a few.

It is a remarkable book because it is perspicacious, comprehensive, systematically structured, simply written, and easily read.

It is a conceptual tour de force – a ‘purva-paksha (critical analysis) of forces that threaten [our] civilization’. 

(Hopefully, there will be a softcover edition too, affordable for students.)

Rajiv Malhotra seems to write primarily for ‘public intellectuals’ and ‘concerned citizens’ and ‘non-experts’ (presumably what is called ‘civil society’ these days) – and most certainly his is an invaluable introduction of this subject to them.  He writes to stimulate thought and debate (he promises a sequel for action, though he suggests directions in this book too) – but, frankly, even from his own narrative (‘time is running out for India’), it is clear we do not have the luxury of time to just talk.  We need action.

He details how Big Tech, the USA, and China (with its ruthless ambition) are jockeying for control over the rest of the world, and especially over an India of which they are sponsoring its breaking.  His book favours the sama aspect of Chanakya Niti.  But, no, it is now time for bheda and danda.  Therefore, decisions are needed. And needed fast. 

His book is a warning and it must be read by all policy-makers and those holding the reins of power in our polity. Consider his book a set of working papers for our decision-makers. 

In particular, it must be read by:

  1. The Prime Minister and the Ministers responsible for Defence, External Affairs, Education, Employment, Finance, Commerce, Home, Industry, Information, and Law. By the National Security Advisor and by the Chief of Defence Staff. (And all of them reading it will ensure those subordinate to them will read it too.)
  2. By the proponents of ‘Constitutional morality’.
  3. By those of our political representatives who, in legislatures, prefer exercising their brain rather than their brawn.
  4. By educationists, and in Indian think tanks.

It must be read by all Indians concerned with the future of our country, of our children and of ourselves.

Because do we want to control our own destiny, or do we want others to control it – and us?

This is a war, as the subtitle of the book tells us. If Sanjaya had divya-drishti, Rajiv Malhotra has an eagle’s eye.  He scans for the reader the battle weaponry and array of the fighting powers. 

He opens with an introduction and an overview of what Artificial Intelligence (AI) is all about and then he details each of the battlegrounds. He starts with the broad context of education and employment and their determination by ‘data capitalism’.  Then, geopolitics and the ‘hard power’ that determines it (one is reminded of jiski lathi uski bhains). The third is ‘the moronization of the masses’ (surely the lesson behind Juvenal’s panem et circenses has been well-learnt by Big Tech). The fourth is ‘the metaphysics of consciousness’ and a psycho-cultural analysis that ends with the ‘crash of civilization’ (the literal de-humanisation of the masses into ‘happy morons’).  And, finally, India as a battleground.

We are familiar with the phrase Samuel Huntington made popular – ‘the clash of civilizations’. Yes, there is a clash but, for us, the clash is between dharmic civilisation and the asuric ones who define us as their enemy.  Ours sees all creation as interconnected (Malhotra refers to ‘Indra’s Net’); asuric civilisations see creation discretely, to be subjugated by the human. Power in the former is to be sought ultimately over oneself; in the latter, over others.[1]

This is something we still choose not to recognise.  The asuric civilisations fight with normative values radically opposed to ours. Theirs are to conquer or kill, their ethos is adversarial and absolute; ours are to adjust or accommodate, our ethos is consensual and contextual. 

Let us never forget that nowhere, but nowhere, in the world where these asuric civilisations (including their so-called secular derivatives) have conquered have they allowed a meaningful survival of any earlier civilisation.  There is not one significant exception to this worldwide historical fact. India is the last major bastion of a non-asuric civilisation. For a thousand years, they have been trying to conquer us, and we are fighting with our backs to the wall.[2] 

Artificial Intelligence, as Rajiv Malhotra proves, is just their latest – and currently most powerful – weapon against us.

The India of which Malhotra writes he calls tamasic, ‘at best a poor imitation of the American dream’, a dream he notes which in America has become a nightmare with its increasing ‘deaths of despair’.  This is an expected expansion of what has been described elsewhere as ‘the Other America’.  For India, he details our apathy, ignorance, naivete, foolishness, denial, and self-delusion. He details the selfishness of our elite the ambitions of too many of whom are only to be compradors for Big Tech and the West – and we groom our youth to be servitors to them. Malhotra seeing digital existence as being ruled through the agency of ‘Google-devata, Facebook-devata, Twitter-devata’, we can see Big Tech as Kamadeva, to whom we willingly enslave ourselves.  

We are, Malhotra shows, welcoming our re-colonisation – ‘If data represents national wealth, India is for sale’.

There are some recent glimmers of hope but we still are blinkered by our inferiority complex for the West and by ‘the fantasy of having a Western identity’.  

Rajiv Malhotra is an intellectual kshatriya.  He argues as ‘a patriotic Indian…..a spiritual person with a strong foundation in Vedanta, physics and computer science’ (and there is an eloquent discussion of Vedic Social Science).  He is no Luddite, but he shows quite clearly that, for India to regain control over AI, we must re-discover ‘our metaphysical roots in dharma’.

Towards such an end, he wonders whether the social engineering practised by China and the USA through the ‘gamification of society’ cannot be used in India to ‘install Vedic principles in society’.  It will be intriguing to see whether and how he deals with this in the sequel he intends to this book, because this requires the formulation and enforcement of dogma (he says ‘non-negotiable principles’, but a footnote admits a conceptual difficulty), whereas the foundation of the dharma is in its ratiocinative freedom.[3]  Such freedom of the intellect is entirely antithetical to the asuric objective, strategy and technique, though the latter finds support from amongst those of us who would define our dharma through ‘essential rituals and practices’ they themselves adjudicate! 

There are conundrums arising from some juxtapositions in the book. Thus:

How do you reconcile a Vedic conception of the human (“with the goal to maximize good karmas”?) with a reductionist conception of humans as ‘biological algorithms’, humans as machines, ‘the so-called human-machine’?  Indeed, with human-machine hybrids, with machines driving humans, with the machine as human?[4]

How do you reconcile what Malhotra points out as the Vedic isomorphism of the human body and cosmic body, of the human mind and the cosmic mind, of yatha pinde tatha brahmande with, again as he points out, the reductionist ideology that any unity we see is synthetic, false and artificial?

How do you reconcile a Vedantic conception of the self (aham brahmasmi) with the self ‘simply an identity that serves the pragmatic function of competitiveness’, and with ‘the battle for hijacking the self…already being won by AI’?

You can’t. 

‘The ultimate effect of this technology is to breakdown individuals into fragments in such a fundamental manner that it undermines their integral unity and selfhood because of no unified centre of existing in this model.’  Exactly so.  It makes us, what has been pointed out elsewhere, ‘enucleated universes’.

How do you reverse our moronism?  ‘The phenomenon of moronization of the Indian masses originated at least one thousand years ago’.  How do you combat what has been building up over a millennium when our Constitution – rooted, as Malhotra notes, in the West – is designed to encourage the Breaking India fifth columnists into perpetuating our dhimmitude and macaulayism, into our remaining morons?[5]  

So, how will it end?

‘At some point, the elites will argue their case for depopulating the earth…..Depopulation will eventually lead to a new equilibrium and an entirely different world’. This will be a world of ‘AI-based digital systems’ controlled by that elite to serve its own ends; an elite that begins ‘to perceive the masses as a parasitic liability’; an ‘AI-based utopia’ for a few, emerging ‘after several decades of this digital genocide of sorts to reduce the population painlessly’, viewing ordinary humans ‘as no more than specimens in lab studies, slaves and beasts of burden, or pets…’.

Then there is the Covid-19 pandemic which Malhotra sees as a ‘hinge point’ in human history. He sees the proliferation of the use of AI in dealing with the pandemic as ‘a great leap forward in the march of AI’ and, says he, it could also be an opportunity for India to ‘leapfrog ahead’.  Indeed, it will be instructive to understand the interplay of culture and AI in pandemic management in the widely different USA, China and India, with widely different pandemic outcomes.     

In sum, digital capitalism, the re-colonisation of the world as digital colonies, digital fascism and the colonisation of (what remains of) the human mind – Rajiv Malhotra’s book shows the onslaught is already well underway. 

If they have not already done so, our decision-makers must also read three classics: Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World, George Orwell’s Nineteen Eighty-Four and EM Forster’s The Machine Stops. The methods and their expression are different but the motivating principles have not changed, and you can identify their parallels quite easily in Rajiv Malhotra’s book.

The Big Tech Controllers and Mustapha Mond.

Depopulation and Bokanovsky’s Process.

The USA, China and Oceania, Eastasia.

AI as a technopoly, and The Machine as Deity.

Rajiv Malhotra quotes Vladimir Putin – ‘Artificial Intelligence is the future…..Whoever becomes the leader in this sphere will become the ruler of the world’.

How is ‘world ruler’ to be defined?

Malhotra shows how the asuric civilizations define it.  A dharmic civilization would have it as ‘vishvaguru in a Vedic sense’, and alert, not complacent.

‘The civilization that was once a world-class knowledge producer and exporter has become the biggest importer and consumer of foreign products and services….’. 

He quotes Narendra Modi – ‘We need to make Artificial Intelligence in India and make Artificial Intelligence work for India.’

And there you have it.  That, eventually, it is about power, and who wields it over whom and how.

‘Decolonising AI is an absolute necessity for India to be a viable nation.’

Events are overtaking us far faster than we can consciously react or adjust to them.

AI is a strategic weapon’.  Will India be able to wield this astra?  

Malhotra calls for a Minister of Digital Affairs, and one hopes such a worthy will have read this book.

He reminds us of lessons of the Ramayana and the Mahabharata, that ‘soft power is always contingent on hard power’.

There is a third lesson of which we need to be reminded.  In making their decisions, our decision-makers would do well to remember Srikrishna’s advice to Arjuna:  

mayavinam ch rajanam mayayaiva nikruntatu [6]

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Five battlegrounds that India can ignore at its own peril

Author Rajiv Malhotra has picked up a most relevant subject of artificial intelligence wherein the machines are going to dictate the future of humanity. This would impact the world, its growth, security and welfare of humans occupying it. In fact, the machines are going to be the new occupants of the globe or to begin with co-inhabitants of humans. The powers of the machines would surpass the human competence, capability and capacity, making it extremely challenging for the ordinary human to co-exist with the new competence of machines.

The machines would constantly pry on data, self-learn and mimic humans. They may, may not or may have selective cognitive ability, but once the algorithms get auto-generated by machines purely based on the data reservoir, it would pose a great challenge. Human dependence on machines would be inescapable and is likely to make humans dumber or as he says morons. Rajiv Malhotra cautions that this would render a large number of traditional jobs redundant, throwing millions of people out of jobs. He is especially worried about India where a large number of people may be simply reduced to the labours of the world. He also fears that if India does not reinvent itself, it might even become a digital colony of the world.

The author has divided the book into two parts. Part 1 deals with Algorithm versus Being. He covers the future applications of machines, as they say, ‘use cases’ and how these use cases would impact the job market, the world economy, its security dynamics and ultimately impact or disturb the world order. Part 2 is dedicated to India, calling it the Battleground India. He has apprehensions about India’s capability to keep pace of digital evolution and fears that if stringent programmes are not implemented, India could become dependent on imported technology and the Indian data could entirely land up in foreign hands reducing India into being a digital colony either of China or of the US. If this happens, its image might be reduced to it becoming a mare labour market of the world. This would be detrimental to our national security and therefore our honourable existence. He has substantiated his hypothesis with certain historical evidence.

The book is written in simple and readable language which can be easily grasped by a layman or a practitioner of IT or AI. The content is divided into various chapters covering the battlegrounds in logical and well-articulated manner. Last 70-odd pages are various appendices, notes, bibliography, etc.

The book covers the entire AI as an activity of disruptions as he calls the five battlegrounds. The first battleground is for economic development and jobs. Second, on the impact on the industrial and economic growth of the world leading to redefining the world order. The third battleground deals with the impact on the human mind, i.e., the Battle for Agency. The fourth battleground deals with the impact on society and culture that would change the behaviour pattern of various societies. The fifth and the most significant battleground that the author describes is the preparedness of Indian nation state and its ability to manage this change.

The book is a fantastic read for both laymen and professionals. It gives a good insight into the future of the machines and the destiny of humans and therefore the future of nations. As a military thinker, this book can become the basis of understanding how the future battles would be fought, making great departures from the conventional battles. Autonomous applications of machinery make humans largely redundant as most of the dangerous jobs would be outsourced. It would be a great challenge for command and control of robot soldiers and autonomous machines who might report to its originator and not the one who employs it. Similarly, the AI-based industrial machinery plants may bring in the quality differential in the final product making business suffer from relative inferiority of similar kinds of product, killing the competition.

Business and military intelligence both in the hands of adversary would certainly mean getting enslaved or colonised by the world that would understand and invest in artificial intelligence ahead of others. It is extremely critical to understand that the runners up would never be winners because the machines would empower better machines throwing the competition beyond the reach and control of a human being. The trick therefore is in starting early.

This book is highly recommended for university education of future generations and should be considered a must-read for the policy and law makers of the country. This book would certainly raise hackles, as issues brought out would and should become a matter of immediate public debate in India.

The reviewer is former Deputy Chief of Integrated Defence Staff of India.

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AI & The Future of Power, News

Why India Should Increase its AI Budget to Deter USA, and China’s Aim Of Digital Colonization

The Artificial Intelligence revolution is already at our doorstep. While we speculated about the times when Robots would co-exist with humans, a growing number of individuals are already becoming cognitively and psychologically dependent on digital networks. Be it social media, PS3 games, or the education sector and the industries – it is impossible to escape the omnipresent impact of AI and while AI makes our machines smarter, it is likely to have an unequal, and drastic effect on our society, according to a new book, by author Rajiv Malhotra titled, Artificial Intelligence and The Future of Power.

The book states that this AI-driven revolution will have an unequal impact on different segments of society. There will be new winners and losers, new haves and have-nots, resulting in an unprecedented concentration of wealth and power. The book examines society’s vulnerabilities to the impending AI revolution, and raises questions that call for urgent debate: Is the world headed toward digital colonization by USA and China? Will depopulation become eventually unavoidable? Why India should increase its AI budget to compete with the USA and china?

The book acts as a wakeup call for the public to be better informed and more engaged in the upcoming AI revolution. It educates the social segments most at risk and wants them to demand a seat at the table where policies on Artificial Intelligence are being formulated. In an excerpt in the book, the author writes:

My research on the likely impact of AI on India has entailed numerous conversations with thought leaders and the study of the written materials available. NITI Aayog, India’s leading government policy think tank, has provided helpful reports on the subject. I also recently read Bridgital Nation: Solving Technology’s People Problem written by the Indian industrialist, Natarajan Chandrasekaran, chairman of Tata Sons … Most reports I have read on AI’s impact on India adopt the framework used by Western industry analysts as their starting point and fine tune the conclusions by plugging in Indian statistics. There is a lack of fresh studies that start from the ground up in India, beginning at the grassroots and working up, rather than going top-down from the West to Indian corporates and then further down.

Some of the glaring blind spots are as follows:

1. The focus of most reports is on the big corporates. The impact on the bottom 500 million Indians in economic status, if considered at all, is addressed as an afterthought.

2. Most reports do not build financial models to accurately estimate the capital and operating expenses involved in implementing AI. Their forecasts are largely based on surveying industry executives and employees with leading questions of a positive kind, while avoiding the troubling issues except in passing. Many respondents are not sufficiently informed about AI to give useful views of the future.

3. The problems of unemployment and inequalities are brushed aside as non-issues: The conclusions of some Western reports that new jobs will replace old ones is quickly assumed to be applicable to India without due diligence on the details. What is not considered are the following:

A) The new jobs created by AI will help a different social-economic demographic group, i.e. those with high standards of education that very few Indian youths get. These few privileged youths with good education are quickly bought off and plucked away to build intellectual property for Western multinationals. But the jobs lost will be from the lower- and middle-class workers that are poorly educated and insufficiently skilled.

B) Many of the new jobs in AI will be geographically concentrated in places like Silicon Valley and Bengaluru. This will exacerbate the rich versus poor geographical divides within India as well as between developed and developing countries.

C) The new AI related jobs will go to the youth and not the middle-aged workers displaced at the peak of their careers. The speed of disruption is too fast to allow the present generation of workers to continue employment for their remaining careers. They will become obsolete in their vulnerable middle-age. This is a serious inter-generational disruption.

D) The financial burden of the massive re-education of millions of workers is not something we can assume the corporates will automatically do. The rosy promises of re-training workers are simply not backed by credible commitments. In fact, some reports suggest that such talk by industry leaders serves as good public relations to mask the calamity of unemployment, by kicking the can down the road rather than dealing with it….

The author states that India has recently started taking AI seriously, but the response is weak and has come rather late. China and the US have a head start of more than a decade, and it will be difficult for India to catch up. The ramifications of being left behind will be serious. The author states that:

Further, India’s path forward is crippled by several factors

• India’s budget for AI development is tiny compared to levels in the US and China.

• The main opportunity in AI that has been identified is for Indians to supply labor for foreign clients. Subordination to other countries will perpetuate the problem of Indians serving as the labor class that builds intellectual property assets for others.

• Many AI start-ups in India are funded by foreign companies with deep pockets and a tentacled hold, so that the occasional Indian success story is quickly acquired and digested into the global brand. Those that are funded domestically often look to sell out to foreign tech giants as their exit strategy. Examples include Halli Labs and Sigmoid Labs, both AI start-ups in India that got acquired by Google.

• Many Indian start-ups are “me-too” copycats offering little original intellectual property leadership—mimicking a foreign platform, Uber, Amazon, or Airbnb, etc……

….. India’s pride often includes the feeling that it is the vishvaguru, or the guru of the world, at least in a spiritual sense. But what is seldom discussed in these proclamations is that such a lofty status also brings corresponding karmic responsibilities. In claiming such a status, has India succeeded or failed in its responsibilities?

Indeed, there is great enthusiasm in India about becoming a global soft power. For instance, India has adopted the posture of leading the world’s yoga movement and is starting to do the same in Ayurveda. The film industry and other popular cultural movements have already become established in the global discourse as Indian exports. However, the following reality check needs to be considered.

Culture ≠ soft power: Just because a country has a wonderful and robust popular culture does not necessarily mean that it has turned this into any power per se. Soft power is the ability to influence others’ policies according to one’s own interests. Culture, exotica, and tourism are separate entities from soft power.

It is a persuasive power over others in a pragmatic sense. Only when culture is transformed into concrete influence over others does it become soft power. Despite their growing popularity, yoga and Ayurveda do not constitute soft power for India. In fact, the Ayurveda certification in Western countries is not controlled from India. The New York-based Yoga Alliance is advancing its goal of standardizing yoga practices decoupled from Indian traditions.

The Indian government’s efforts to spread awareness of yoga are commendable, but they have not produced any power per se. Hard power as a foundation for soft power: The real question to ask is whether soft power is sustainable without hard power. Is soft power by itself viable? Or is that merely the fallback position of those that fail to compete in the hard power kurukshetra (battleground), a cover for their weakness by claiming soft power as a consolation prize?

Individual success ≠ collective soft power: India is also justifiably proud that its diaspora is asserting its Indian identity and has excelled as doctors, technology entrepreneurs, financial industry experts, pharma industry leaders, chefs, filmmakers, and other professionals. Indians head some of the world’s largest multinational companies. There is, however, a big difference between the power of individuals for their own personal success and the power of India’s institutions for global impact. There is a difference between Indians using their heritage for personal gain and those sacrificing their personal success for a greater national interest.

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AI & The Future of Power, Book review

“Artificial Intelligence And The Future Of Power”​, An Interesting View Of AI In General And India In The Specific

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power,” by Rajiv Malhotra, is an interesting book worth checking out. It has two parts. The first discusses four aspects of power, presented as battles for jobs, world domination, agency and self, and how artificial intelligence (AI) will impact each. The second half applies the first to what the author sees is happening in India. A lot is fuzzy and his opinions, but there is enough meat there to be worth taking the time.

Chapter 1 is an overview of AI and starts, unfortunately, with equating machine learning (ML) and AI only with deep learning. While I use a wider definition, as displayed in my forbes.com column, I can understand a novice’s confusion. As deep learning is the main way that modern AI will impact the four areas of power Mr. Malhotra covers, I can let that slide.

One problem, however, is his description of big data as a “foundational concept of AI.” Nope. I have enough problems with the term “big data”, but it’s not vaguely a basic concept of AI. It’s just a lot of data. Sure, large amounts are used to understand societal issues and consumer preferences, but smaller amounts of data are being used to train more focused ML systems.

His chapters on jobs and world domination are the best though out. I admit bias on the first, because he agrees with what I’ve been saying for a while, that jobs will clearly go away. This isn’t another industrial advance, where workers can move from one manufacturing floor to another. This is a sea change in what computers can do and will replace far more jobs than it creates. This needs to be better understood by policy makers.

Many in the US and Europe are waking up to the real question of competitiveness with China on all aspects, political, economic, and more. It’s no surprise that an Indian understands and explains the threat very well. Those two nations, the largest by population, have been in conflict a long time. As someone with personal experience in both India and the United States, he clearly discusses the advantages a totalitarian nation has in comparison to democratic nations when wanting to rapidly change direction. He describes Chinese adoption of AI in full range of national competition on the international stage.

However, the chapter isn’t only about competition between nations. He references just how rich and powerful a few companies and people are today. As he pointed out, “in one year, Google received more than 10,000 requests from the US government to turn over private user information, and it decided to comply 93 times.” Regardless of which side of the data privacy issue you stand, it shouldn’t be up to a company. Plus, if Google ignores the US, what chance do smaller nations have?

The third and fourth areas of power he discusses are the fuzziest, with agency being more structured and realistic than self. In “The Battle for Agency”, the author describe the potential risk of handing more and more of our own responsibilities to machines. It’s especially important because there’s still the question of who controls and regulates the machines, businesses or government, and if either is a good thing. He goes a bit far with “digital slavery”, but the risk of the few even better manipulating the many is well described.

“The Battle for Self” is the weakest chapter. It is too metaphysical for my taste, implying there’s something good about sticking with belief systems created before we had science to evaluate the world in a less biased manner (note “less”, science is often abused). You can have concepts of social justice and ethical behavior by looking at what we see works best in the world. That’s all I’ll say rather than get into a much more robust yet tangential discussion on this subject.

The second half of this book is all about how the first half applies to India. It’s very interesting to read. There are some parallels to what is happening to many nations, but the clear and well written focus on India is why this isn’t in my main column. The editors want us to focus on the US, and this isn’t. However, there are great lessons to be seen for anything interested in the world.

It’s a very interesting book, worth reading. I don’t have to agree with everything to say that. “Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Power” is a thoughtful person’s take on AI and its growing impact on human society.

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AI & The Future of Power, All Articles, Articles by Rajiv, News

Exporting man power and importing technology

Exporting manpower and importing technology

The AI-driven revolution will have an unequal impact on different segments of humanity, that will eventually lead to digital colonisation. An exclusive excerpt from Rajiv Malhotra’s latest book.

Artificial Intelligence is only partially visible, like an iceberg. To understand it fully, we must look beneath the surface. The positive side is that technology is making machines smarter. However, the deeper view explained in Artificial Intelligence And The Future Of Power shows that AI is also making a growing number of people cognitively and psychologically dependent on digital networks.

Artificial Intelligence and The Future of Power argues that the AI-driven revolution will have an unequal impact on different segments of humanity. After analysing the society’s vulnerabilities to the impending tsunami, the book raises troubling questions that provoke immediate debate: Is the world headed toward digital colonisation by USA and China? Will depopulation become eventually unavoidable?

The telecom and information technology revolution, including the spread of the internet, mobile telephones, and social media, has been largely pioneered by Western firms. But it is fair to say that Indian engineers played a significant role as employees and contractors working for the companies that own the intellectual property.

At the same time, India has become one of the largest markets importing these technologies. India is proud of having the fastest-growing installed base of mobile users, but the technology used in the networks is largely US and European, and the handsets are mainly Chinese. India takes pride in that it has the second-highest number of internet users in the world, and this number is growing faster than any other country. India also has among the world’s largest installed bases of users on Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram, Twitter, and YouTube. Indians buy mostly Chinese hardware and use it to access US digital platforms. These facts indicate Indians’ eagerness as consumers of foreign products and services, but also highlight the failure of domestic technology developers. Even when manufacturing is done in India due to cost advantages, the research and engineering controlled by foreign entities give them power over intellectual property.

My concern is that India has failed to adequately educate the youth and enable them to realize their potential. The civilization that was once a world-class knowledge producer and exporter has become the biggest importer and consumer of foreign products and services—from agriculture to technology. Even in the realm of accolades, Indians chase Academy Awards, Nobel Prizes, Pulitzer Prizes, Rhodes Scholarships, Fulbright Scholarships, and various other international awards, much more than domestic recognitions of achievement.

To understand how India has slipped, consider the following analogy. Suppose a contractor recruits poor villagers from Bihar and brings them to Delhi as labourers on a construction site. The labourers do not own any equity in the project, not so much as a single brick. The bricks they install belong to the client who owns the building. When the construction project is completed, workers must look for the next job, and then yet another one. Their labour does not translate into any equity or long-term security. But the contractor organizing this labour makes a handsome profit quickly with little effort or value-added.

At first, this arrangement looks promising for the workers, because they can send money home to support their struggling families. And they may earn enough money to buy some consumer goods that are the envy of people back in the village. Maybe they own a fancy smartphone or a scooter. Compared to others in the village, their lifestyle is superior. They are the village heroes, and their parents are proud. They are sought after as a good catch for marriage.

India’s software lead was similarly based on labour arbitrage with foreign clients, which is inherently a rickety business model in the long run. The middlemen in India hired computer programmers for low salaries compared to Western levels. They marked up the rates and sold cheap Indian labour to foreign, particularly the US, companies. Clients saved money because the wage rates in the US were much higher than in India even after the markups. This system appeared to bolster India’s economy. But in the long run, labour arbitrage is self-defeating as explained below:

  • It only works if Indian wages remain sufficiently low compared to the client country. Indian tech workers must be kept below a wage ceiling for the model to remain viable. But suppressing wages merely encourages the best minds to leave India in search of fair compensation.
  • Other developing countries also enter the same field using their own low wages as an advantage, and they may underbid Indian wages.
  • Client countries inevitably tighten immigration laws to save their own jobs. India’s export becomes contingent on the internal politics of the client country.

Only in the past few years did India’s government and corporations wake up when the US started clamping down on outsourcing, and when Indian tech workers sent to the US also faced increasing competition from American professionals. Labour arbitrage does have value for the short term, bringing quick employment and helping train the local workforce. But the middlemen should not accumulate wealth at the expense of workers, and government planners should not consider it as a sustainable strategy.

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